Table 1: National popular two-party vote forecasts
Method Dem Rep
PollyVote
Expert judgment
Index models
Econometric models
Prediction markets
Polls
The PollyVote predicts the two-party popular vote-shares in US presidential elections by combining forecasts from different component methods. Table 1¬†shows the latest PollyVote forecast¬†as well as the forecasts from each component method. The chart below shows how the PollyVote popular vote forecast for this year’s presidential election has developed over time since its first release on January 1, 2016.